Weather is a critical driver for near term gas prices. The strong correlation between gas prices and weather was displayed with the warm 2011–2012 winter and the subsequent decline in gas prices throughout North America.
For ICForecast Gas Price Risk Report, ICF does not try to predict weather, but instead uses 80 years of regional weather data to define distributions of gas prices at major price points throughout North America. The Gas Price Risk Report helps gas producers and midstream service providers, marketers, and gas consumers—including gas utilities and power providers—address gas price volatility due to the unpredictability of weather. The distributions in the report can be used to advise financial and resource planning.
The Gas Price Risk Report is based on results from the Gas Market Model (GMM®), ICF's proprietary model of the North American gas market. To produce the report, ICF's model is run multiple times with actual weather data from the past 80 years, solving for gas prices under current market conditions with the changing weather conditions. The model output is then used to define price and regional price basis distributions.
To learn more, please complete the form and indicate your interest in the Gas Price Risk Report or contact us directly at firstname.lastname@example.org.