ICF actively develops and maintains a sophisticated measure-based Energy Efficiency Potential Model (EEPM) that projects the technical, economic, and achievable potential of a wide range of gas and electric efficiency upgrades under several market intervention scenarios. Results of the model are used to design portfolios of energy efficiency and demand response programs for utilities, as inputs for integrated resource planning, and in models for greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction strategies.
EEPM utilizes several types of input data to project this potential:
- Baseline load forecasts segmented by sector, sub-sector (i.e., building type or SIC/NAICS code), end use, and technology type
- Savings and cost information for demand-side efficiency technologies
- Retail and wholesale energy cost forecasts
- Saturation of efficient end-use equipment already installed, and penetration of high-efficiency equipment in current equipment sales
The outputs include extensive data on the sectors, markets, building types, industries, end uses, and measures that promise the greatest opportunities for energy efficiency improvements. In addition, EEPM projects annual equipment, administrative, and monetary incentive costs required to purchase efficient equipment and to finance programs to stimulate the purchase of that equipment. It also produces custom load shapes for each program that can be used for integrated resource planning models.