While the future of CO2 regulation of the power sector remains uncertain as the Clean Power Plan is under legal review, the expectation of future CO2 emissions from U.S. generation has changed dramatically. Over the past year, market drivers have driven down expectations of future carbon dioxide emissions from the U.S. power sector by 16%. Lower emissions would lower states’ hurdles to Clean Power Plan compliance, should it survive legal challenge, but would still leave power sector CO2 emission reductions well short of long-term “deep decarbonization” goals.
Gas and renewable resources remain the predominant long-term resource options, but both run the risk of over-investment as market drivers and regulation continue to shift.
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