The environmental and market potential of hybrid aviation
DownloadThe aviation industry has set clear targets to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. However, there is little clarity around the best approaches to follow to achieve this goal.
Published roadmaps include novel technologies such as battery electric, hydrogen, and hybrid propulsion. Yet the contribution of these different technologies towards achieving net zero lacks consensus. These contributions are also often consolidated and combined with other anticipated efficiency technologies that could be introduced into aviation.
ICF produced a report on the potential impact of using hybrid-powered aircraft as one of the proposed pathways to achieve net-zero emissions. A hybrid aircraft uses a combination of electric motors and traditional, conventional engines to provide propulsion.
ICF projects that hybrid aircraft could realistically reduce global aviation emissions by approximately 5%
In an effort to clarify the specific role hybrid propulsion can play, our aviation team conducted an independent analysis focused exclusively on hybrid-powered aircraft. The resulting report, “The potential impact of hybrid propulsion on aviation,” assesses the environmental and market potential of this technology pathway.
This study was made possible through Heart Aerospace’s participation. The company granted us access to technical specifications and market assumptions for its ES-30 aircraft, a 30-seat hybrid regional airliner expected to enter service in 2029. Heart also provided aircraft-level data including range, capacity, and expected production rates, which we then integrated with historical flight and route data, fleet utilization trends, and modelling of future route creation enabled by improved hybrid aircraft economics.
Why download this report?
In-depth analysis: Using Heart Aerospace’s data on range and capacity, our team conducted an analysis to estimate the potential market size and environmental benefits of hybrid electric aircraft.
- We integrated Heart’s data with historical trends in flight and route growth, the aircraft currently servicing these routes, the ratio of aircraft to routes, and operational dynamics. To assess the environmental impact, we employed a methodology that evaluated routes and flight frequencies, comparing emissions from current aircraft with those expected from hybrid models.
Data-driven findings: By applying the emission reduction potential of hybrid aircraft, we estimated that hybrid aviation could mitigate up to 9% of global emissions with an unlimited supply of hybrid aircraft.
- Factoring in production constraints and various market share scenarios, ICF projects that hybrid aircraft could realistically reduce global aviation emissions by approximately 5%.
Strategic recommendations: Hybrid aviation represents a transformative opportunity for sustainable aviation.
- Our analysis forecasts the potential of over 18,200 hybrid aircraft operating globally by 2050. By advancing hybrid technology, we found that the aviation sector could make substantial progress toward achieving a sustainable, net-zero future.
For a deeper dive into our findings, download the complete report.