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PJM 2019/2020 Capacity Auction Analysis

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PJM’s 2019/2020 Base Residual Auction (BRA) was a rare auction in which there were no major structural changes to the market since the last auction. However, the recently cleared auction resulted in significantly lower prices because of PJM’s lower peak demand forecast, 5.5 GW of new generation, and lower bids from existing generators. PJM’s assumed 30 performance assessment hours in the penalty rate calculation understates units’ opportunity cost of being energy only and lowers bids. Capacity prices are expected to increase for 2020/2021 with continued EMAAC and COMED separation.

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