ISO-NE forward capacity auction outlook: Recent uplift likely to persist


This ICF International white paper examines results from the ISO-New England (NE) Forward Capacity Market (FCM) auction 9 (FCA9) announced on February 4, 2015. Most developments that occurred indicate a more positive outlook for upcoming forward capacity auctions (FCA) than initially estimated.

If no other changes in supply and demand balance follow, pricing in FCA10 could be similar to pricing in FCA9. With the suggested changes in the dynamic delist prices recommended by the independent market monitor, the proposed 40 percent increase provides an effective floor and substantial support for upcoming auctions—even under the most pessimistic scenarios.

Key topics in this white paper include:

  • Detailed FCA9 auction results
  • FCA price support
  • Merchant generators
  • Impact of new boundaries for local capacity zones
  • RFP for renewable resources and transmission resources

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