Exploring the ramp-up of hydrogen production in the EU
In cooperation with Fraunhofer ISI and Artelys, ICF is carrying out a study for the European Commission to analyse the potential ramp-up of renewable hydrogen production in the European Union and in third countries. This study will identify potential bottlenecks for the achievement of the European targets for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) and the objectives the EU aims to achieve by supporting renewable hydrogen production.
Challenge
Renewable hydrogen represents a strategic opportunity to decrease emissions form hard-to-abate sectors, and hard-to-electrify sectors in particular. Ramping up renewable hydrogen production aims to support the achievement of EU climate objectives by 2050, as part of an integrated energy system.
The EU has deployed important efforts to support renewable hydrogen viability, including the EU Hydrogen Bank, to support the supply of renewable hydrogen. This also supports demand-side interventions such as the mandatory 42.5% renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) share in industry by 2030 under the Renewable Energy Directive III, and mandates for RFNBOs under ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime regulations.
This supporting policy environment has translated into a steep growth in the announcement of new renewable hydrogen projects, with the EU accounting for the largest share of globally announced capacity by 2030. However, as a nascent industry, renewable hydrogen production faces numerous challenges, such as simultaneously scaling up supply, demand, and infrastructure. The 2025 report entitled “The green hydrogen ambition and implementation gap” accepted by Nature Energy, states that in 2022 only 0.62 GW of electrolysis capacity was operational on time, instead of the 2.8 GW initially announced. Similarly, in 2023, of the 7.1 GW initially announced, only an estimated 0.92 GW became operational.
The EU’s hydrogen strategy lays out the European Commission’s vision for hydrogen as “essential” in its role as an energy carrier in a European integrated energy system.
Key statistics from the EU Hydrogen strategy under the EU Green Deal and the Red lll Directive
40 GW
Phase 2: (2025 - 2030)
The target is 40 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers by 2030.
80-120 GW
Phase 3: (2030 – 2050)
Renewable hydrogen technologies should reach maturity and be deployed at large scale to reach all hard-to-abate sectors where other alternatives might not be feasible or have higher costs.
The renewable energy generation required to reach renewable hydrogen production targets would amount to 80-120 GW.
42.5%
of the hydrogen used in industry should come from RFNBOs by 2030 and 60% by 2035.
Solution
The objective of this study is to support the European Commission in monitoring the ramp-up of hydrogen production in the EU and in third countries, assess the effectiveness of the hydrogen framework, and identify possible barriers to the upscaling of renewable hydrogen.
The study will provide a detailed overview of renewable hydrogen production in the EU and third countries at both project and Member State levels. This will help assess the capacity of Member States to positively contribute towards the EU energy and emissions objectives. The assessment of the hydrogen framework will support the review of the delegated act on renewable fuels of non-biological origin.
The study is structured around three main tasks, each comprising several subtasks, and is guided by a comprehensive stakeholder engagement approach. The two technical tasks are outlined in greater detail below.
Where we are now
The project started in May 2025 and will culminate with the submission of its final report in July 2028. Three interim reports will be delivered over the course of the project. Two key planned stakeholder workshops will also be conducted over the course of the project.
Please do not hesitate to contact us should you have any questions about this study. Send the project team an email and we endeavour to respond quickly to your enquiry.
Funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union. The European Union cannot be held responsible for them.